Outbreaks appear to be exacerbated in the Paris region since last week. SYSPEO / SIPA
- The incidence rate in Ile-de-France is now 117 cases per 100,000 population, which has been on the rise since last week.
- The rate of hospitalization – in classic or intensive care – continues to decline.
- The number of trials increased significantly last week and is likely to rise further as the holiday season approaches.
When looking at curves, you sometimes have the feeling of seeing the course of the roller coaster. Like them, people hold its breath as they exit and breathe when they come down thinking of what to expect next. After registration Sharp fall throughout November, Events
Corona virus – i.e. the number of cases per 100,000 population – a significant increase has been recorded in recent days
Il-de-France. According to the Regional Health Agency (ARS), there were 105 cases per 100,000 people last week, up from 117 cases now.
Only the President of the Republic can attest to this …
“For now, this increase, which affects all sectors of the region, will have no hospital effects. Regular hospitalization and intensive care will continue to decline,” says one within the ARS, confirming the careful observance of the situation, especially with the approach of annual holidays, when part of the staff is on leave. Now, almost half of the revival beds in Ile-de-France Govt is occupied by patients in severe form, Which is half more than last month.
The increase to the source is difficult
The origin of this increase is difficult to analyze accurately. The opening of stores on November 28th may have played a role in increasing reactions, but this revision alone cannot explain it. This phenomenon began to rise again from the first week of December after stagnation, but usually took 10 to two weeks to see the effects of a measurement on the population due to the incubation period of the disease. “R0”, the virus’s reproduction rate, especially an indicator followed by authorities, began to rise on November 24.
“We have seen a certain relaxation in the population,” he said last Tuesday Interview with Health Minister Oliver Varan on LCI. To clarify further: “During the two imprisonments the French made great efforts. Humidity and cooling would be even higher for these figures.
Govit-19 And weather, many researchers have noted that the strength of the epidemic is often associated with bad weather.
“This is not the weather that affects the virus as much as the behavior,” it said in early December 20 minutes Michael Legias, teacher of the School of Advanced Studies in Public Health, is an expert in the analysis and management of health risk situations. The colder the temperature, the less ventilated we can find in warmer interiors. However, the region is relatively mild before the first half of November cools down.
Worry before the holidays
But this increase can be explained – in any case – mechanically: last week, nearly 270,000 trials were conducted in the region, almost 40,000 more than the previous week, which indicates 20 minutes ARS. As the holiday season approaches, that number is likely to increase further. However, the more we test, the more it increases.
The positive rate of trials is relatively stable, even declining slightly in many sectors, such as Paris, indicating that the incidence rate of infection has not increased as rapidly. However, with the Christmas and New Year approaching, these figures show just how vulnerable the situation in Ile-de-France is.
