Seasonal Forecast: Mild in January but cold in February

Seasonal Forecast: Mild in January but cold in February

Digital model developed by METEO CONSULT * High pressures located in high latitudes (Scandinavia) were well anticipated, while low pressures would be repeated in the Mediterranean basin. That’s what’s happening this December, which may finally be the coldest in France since 2010. But from January, our model assumes the return of an even more turbulent flow over France, which will eventually bring widespread precipitation across the territory. Temperatures above average for the season.

For the January-February-March quarter, The temperature forecast in France is close to the seasonal average of the last 30 years (0 to +0.5°C difference), with monthly differences. Rainfall is highest in January, but falls again in February and March further north. As for temperatures, they are expected to rise in January, standing at +1°C above average, while February and March will be cold again (closer to or below average).

Weather Forecasts for Winter in France © The Weather Channel

Remember that a Seasonal winter The average minimum temperature ranges from 0 to 5°C and the maximum varies from 4 to 14°C depending on the region. Average monthly precipitation in winter ranges from 50 to 100 mm with strong regional disparities, and February is statistically one of the driest months of the year in France.

With an expected temperature anomaly between 0 and +0.5°C, Throughout the winter will be very close to normal, France may experience the coldest winter since 2017, the last marked by very significant warm anomalies (+2 ° C in 2018-2019, +2 .7 ° C in winter 2019 -2020, +1.2 in 2020-2021 °C and in 2021 – 2022).

In detail, here is our analysis for the next three months:

January: Rain returns

This upgrade confirms the return of Atlantic low pressure systems approaching Western Europe. In a west-to-southwesterly flow, disturbances may eventually hit France and much of western Europe. This resumption of disturbed weather may show precipitation between +10 and +30% of the seasonal average with snow in the mid-mountains. Temperatures are observed to be +0.5 to +1°C above average, although it will be temporarily very cold at the beginning of January, but in this case the risk of cold weather is excluded.

February: Cold despite low reliability

Overall reliability for February is still low due to the strong spread of numerical models. However, our model presents a scenario very close to last month, indicating good consistency of the forecast. A chaotic environment appears to continue near the Atlantic Ocean, while high pressure and dry weather will affect Eastern Europe and Russia. France could be cut in two With dry and anticyclonic weather in the north, the disturbance moves southward, towards the Mediterranean. On average, precipitation will be +10% above normal, and temperatures will be near or slightly below average, especially in the northern half, ranging from 0° to -0.5°C. Meanwhile, it will be cold in Scandinavia and Russia.

March: Maybe cold, humid in the south

The global weather system does not change much at the scale of Europe, with high pressures always recurring in the Nordic countries, while disturbances mainly extend from the Iberian Peninsula to the Mediterranean, bringing above-average rainfall. South of France. Northern region will be under the influence of high pressure with lack of rain. These conditions will be accompanied by below-average temperatures across the European continent, which will complicate energy availability at the end of winter.

If they are confirmed, These predictions are “good” news in more ways than one:

– A stable winter, i.e. normal, will make possible the risk linked to the tense energy environment in Europe, which will have a greater impact as a result of energy demand, unlike a colder-than-normal winter. In this case, January is favorable, but there is uncertainty in February and March, which can be relatively cold. However, although stable, it is cooler than the three previous ones that reached extreme temperatures:

> +2°C (2018-19) > +2.7°C (2019-20) > +1.2°C (2020-21)

– Active interruptions, especially the expected return in January, will allow to replenish the groundwater, which is in short supply in our country and struggles to rise. In fact, the rains so far have not been enough to stave off the drought that has prevailed since last spring. It is in autumn and Rainfall in winters is really beneficial. Our massifs – especially the southern regions – can then detect a significant snow cover, which differs from last winter, which was very dry, and the deficit reached -25% between December 1, 2021 and February 28, 2022.

To this day, we prefer this situation in any case.

* These long-term forecasts are based on an analysis of anomalies observed by a model developed by METEO Consult. There are many other seasonal forecast models that sometimes offer completely different scenarios.

The evolution of winter in France © The Weather Channel

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