There are several ways to approach the midterm elections in the United States on Tuesday, November 8. By the natural swing of politics: they are usually unfavorable to the party in power. Republicans hope to regain control of the House of Representatives, and the Senate, which holds a handful of key states. If that happens, the White House will be turned into a fortress for two years, subject to investigations launched by the right wing. But caution is required. The amazing weight of early voting – already 40 million votes – was not actually taken into account in the poll.
This is the first post-Covid poll, which Joe Biden announced in mid-September. “Pandemic [était] Done ». It is not in national debates, but it plays a key role in spreading hostility and paranoia on the right against federalist pundits and elites. The dominant material is the economic question. There is a deep pessimism about the country’s direction that Democrats have mistakenly underestimated. Inflation (8.5% a year) is a rare transparent matter that hits the most vulnerable households disproportionately.
And then there’s the long story, America’s reflection in its mirror. Polls have rarely looked so uncertain beyond the large turnout reported by early polls. But this transition cannot be reduced to a question of possible parliamentary change. Two commitments are already essential and not dependent on certain seats favoring the reds (Republicans) or the blues (Democrats). The first is about returning to the normalcy created by Joe Biden in the exercise of power, the restoration of presidential dignity, and the proper functioning of institutions.
After the Trump era, this amendment is undeniable. But if it is confined to the executive it seems extraordinarily weak. All around, particulate matter has intensified over the past two years. “The truth is, Joe Biden didn’t win with 81 million votes. If you think he did, you’re a conspiracy theorist.”, Gary Lake explained a few days ago, is a rhetorical reversal maintained and testified to confusion. A candidate for governor in Arizona, he is sometimes mentioned as a possible running mate for Donald Trump in 2024.
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