In summary:
- At the beginning of November under a pronounced mild;
- The heat should be firm for a good part of the month;
- Cold awaits Quebec, but its moment of glory remains uncertain.
In general, temperatures above seasonal norms are likely to settle in Quebec for a good portion of November. The cold will take root in the western regions. At the same time, the presence of an atmospheric trough in Alaska favors the upwelling of heat eastward across the continent.
According to current forecasts, the heat will reach its peak in the first week of November. A mercury of 15°C or more is on the radar for the first few steps of the month.
Even 20 degrees Celsius is possible in some places – rare at this time of year. However, these tend to be isolated episodes and not a prolonged heat surge like in 2020, where six days ended with mercury.
This makes the first half warmer than usual. Keep in mind that seasonal normals in southern Quebec can range from 10 to 3 degrees Celsius.
Sweetness can extend its arrival to the second third of the month. This confirms the positive bearish trend of recent weeks.
A shock at sight
However, the winter cold hangs over Quebec like the Sword of Damocles. Problem: It’s hard to know exactly when a province will be overtaken by cold weather. However, it is inevitable.
A change in atmospheric conditions in the last third of the month will allow for a marked return to winter conditions. The third week of November will be decisive in this regard.
Everything points to the fallout being brutal. In fact, even if the mercury only returns to seasonal norms, the mildness at the beginning of the month will make the variation even more marked.