If autumn is cold, winter …

If autumn is cold, winter ...

Pioneer Autumn

Autumn often shows what winter looks like. In the last thirty years, two cases stand out: 1989 and 1993. These two winters were particularly cold, while the fall was already colder than usual.

“In 1989, the blast in the fall was brutal and November is projecting us into the heart of winter,” explains meteorologist Régène Ouimet. “Since then, Quebec has experienced 50 days of cold. December is the coldest month since the 1940s. Winter will blow quickly in January. The fall of 1993 is right after Halloween.” The day was marked by a blizzard, an event heralding the coldest winter ever recorded, a record that still stands. »

Reveals the data

For 80 years, the statistics speak for themselves. When autumn is colder than normal, winter is more likely to follow the same trend. However, note that this result takes into account recent average temperatures from 1991 to 2020.

“The score is 75% if we refer to the latest normal since 1991, says Régène Ouimet. So, three times out of four, there is filiation and the winter in the previous autumn is colder than usual. »

ExpertJ1

Quebec is warming up

Quebec is not immune to climate change. Seasons are warm and natural and develop in the same way. Considering average temperatures since 1941, cold fall and cold winter foliation is less common. However, it happens almost twice out of three in Montreal.

“This result is penalized in older years when there was less warm weather,” says Région Ouimet. We restarted the exercise with a supernormal that includes all data since 1941.

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ExpertJ2

Great pleasure

In Quebec, the data is solid. The average since 1990 is 9 times higher than the 13. Most of the unusually cold autumn events show that the winter is also cold.

ExpertJ5

In collaboration with Rejean Ouimet, meteorologist.


See also: A winter landscape in Quebec

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