What causes the fifth wave of epidemics in Hungary?

Mit okozhat az ötödik járványhullám Magyarországon?

The new virus variant, first identified in South Africa, is spreading at an extraordinary rate around the world: by the end of November, the delta variant still accounted for 99 percent of positive cases, but by December 19, 95 countries had been identified. Omigron virus variant.

Russia’s epidemiologist Beatrice A. Portfolio He pointed out that two vaccines are no longer enough to prevent Omigran variant infection, and that three vaccines are needed to achieve maximum protection.

The study by Gergely Röst, a mathematician and colleague at the Bolyai Institute at Szeged University, was published a few days ago. medRxiv Science Portal.

In this publication, mathematicians evaluated the potential effects of new infections caused by the Omigron variant and concluded that a significant new wave due to the Omigron is expected. Distribution of delta variation It is controlled by population control measures and immunization.

“It is already known that omigran infection is much easier for those who have been vaccinated before, but those who have been vaccinated may be five times more likely to become infected again than the delta rate,” the mathematician explained.

An important conclusion is that no matter which combination we look at, there will be less protection to keep the delta under control.

What will be the next Omigron infection?

The study found that these are very different. In terms of modeling, can build fast, And a steep climb.

According to Gergely Röst, there is encouraging news, but less encouraging, overall it is not yet clear. Although Omigran requires a small rate of hospitalization and many people suffer at the same time due to a serious infection, it can still be a serious problem for the health system.

Depending on the exact proportions, but these are not yet known

Said the mathematician.

Based on current epidemiological predictions, Beatrice Oros said the combined effect of avoiding increased infection and immunity will be greater at the final level of the fifth wave than the effect of a potential decrease in severity. “Therefore, despite the moderate reduction in severity, high levels of hospital stress cannot be avoided at such a high growth rate.”

Regarding the Hungarian epidemic perspective, Orozi said that as omigran is currently spreading in the country, we will certainly see the rise of a fifth epidemic in Hungary soon due to the spread of the omigran variant. As we saw in the alpha variant a year ago, the epidemic twist will occur before the end of the fourth wave.

At present, however, there is only minimal information on the spread of Omigran in Hungary (as of Monday evening, 15 cases have been identified by NNK experts).

Who is most at risk?

Globally, the majority of people hospitalized for the Omigran variant are not vaccinated, said Beatrice Orosi, who said despite being vaccinated there are still many who have become ill or have re-infection and expect a mild course.

The effectiveness of vaccines against acute diseases may be greater than protection against infection, but the third vaccine may also increase protection against infection. This is confirmed by the results of the first research, which shows that the third vaccine can also exhibit strong immunity against omigran.

In Hungary, the proportion of people with two vaccines (one in Johnson) is 61 percent (approximately 5.7 million people) and the proportion of people with three vaccines is 34 percent (approximately 3 million people).

To the best of our knowledge, all three vaccines have significant protection against severe runoff, with the remaining nearly 7 million people currently having only moderate or minimal protection. In the fifth wave of infections caused by the Omigron variant, they are the most dangerous.

According to an epidemiologist, according to international examples, omigrans can easily spread to limited areas with the participation of many people. “For super distribution“Events, and it draws attention to the greater role of air exchange.

Therefore, any measures that reduce the risk of air pollution, such as adequate ventilation or ventilation, use of a well-fitted mask (dual mask or FFP2 / FFP3), distance of 1.5-2 m, preference for outdoor junctions, etc. can reduce the risk of air pollution as before. Read on.

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