Kasturi goes bankrupt at any moment: only paranoia survives | Blog post

Elon Musk, the US rocket tycoon who threatened to settle on Mars, has recently been a bit annoyed. This may be the second major crisis in the American scientific and technological community since the 1990s. Musk has made such a self-parody.


SpaceX’s “Falcon 9” took off yesterday with 48 “Starling” satellites. (AP Image)

Yesterday, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket carrying 48 “Starling” satellites was successfully launched into space as usual. The launch is SpaceX’s 27th Falcon 9 mission this year, surpassing the 26 set in 2020. The achievement of this work. However, due to concerns lurking in the core of the rocket, Musk was not happy with it. Wrong on Thanksgiving Day. Almost to the point of wreaking havoc on the company, Intel CEO Andrew Grove worked hard for this (he learned about cancer this year) and summed up his crisis management experience: “Only paranoia survives.” The popular parable survives the same paranoia as the title of a new book published in 1996.

Musk is in good health, but he has a lot of ideas. If this problem is not solved, SpaceX will face a real bankruptcy crisis.

Musk did not explain the specific problem of the Raptor engine, but online analysis believes it is a problem in the second generation Raptor product. There may be three aspects: “First, the thrust increase did not meet expectations; second, production speed did not continue. Production time for each engine exceeded expectations; 3. Engine quality control was poor and the defect rate was high. SpaceX’s speed is said to have slowed over the past six months due to a shortage of chips. . Impacted expected productivity and ability to complete Starling orders this year.

By 2022, SpaceX’s “starship” will have more than a dozen launches. Based on the 35 engines of each “starship”, at least hundreds of raptors will be used next year. This pressure is actually quite high. Will SpaceX really go bankrupt because of this? According to Musk, the global economy is in a deep recession and the cash flow of funds is likely to tighten. He said: “SpaceX is unlikely to go bankrupt, but it is not. Impossible”.

The news immediately caused a worldwide outcry, and it was far more serious than Pentium’s problem with the “floating point calculation process” problem, which occurs only once every 9 billion. However, Musk said it was common for companies to go bankrupt. Finally, he quotes Crowe’s famous line: only paranoia survives.

Grove seems to have left Musk with a note at the beginning of the book. In the preface to the book he said: “If you are running a business, you must realize that no systematic plan can anticipate this (strategic turning point) change.… (Fire Brigade) There is no way to predict where the next fire will be. We need to build an energy and efficient team that can handle it at the right time. “

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What is a “strategic breakthrough”? In short, a change of circumstances, such as breaking the ground. For example, the advent of automobiles revolutionized the era of car transport. The “strategic turning point” Musk faced was mainly the epidemic that had transformed the global economy; The second global technology supply chain is completely uncertain. Who is responsible for this? The U.S. floods caused high inflation and triggered the global financial crisis. As for the infection, do not blame the virus. The main mistake is the improper opposition of the United States. – Infectious strategy.

If so, Musk really wants to be captain of the U.S. Fire Department. You will save the fire caused by America, please.

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