US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) mission “OSIRIS-REx” in two years Accumulated data Up to 2300 allowed accurate tracking of possible movements of the pen. The results show that the probability of Penn reaching Earth is 1: 1750, which is higher than the previously estimated 1: 2300.
Although this means that Pennu is more likely to reach Earth in the future, researchers do not think big enough to worry about this change.
“These are not significant changes, and the probability of an asteroid impact is almost identical,” said David Fornusi, a leading scientist at NASA’s Center for Earth Research.
“Actually, we now know about the Pennu path and we can better control the possible paths.
I think the overall situation has improved and I am not as excited about it as I used to be. “
If the penn reaches Earth, it will form an abyss 10 to 20 times larger than the asteroid. The affected area of the asteroid will be 100 times larger than the crater created.
Next time an asteroid will approach Earth in 2135. Although Penn is not close enough to threaten Earth, precise asteroid orbit monitoring will help scientists better understand how our planet’s gravity changes the future orbit of the asteroid around the Sun.
Scientists agree that the risk of Penn’s impact on Earth is low, and that NASA will continue to monitor the meteorite’s orbit for many years.
It is known that work on the Pennu meteorite began in 2016 when a study was sent to collect samples. In December 2018, OSIRIS-REx reached the asteroid, and in September 2023 it was planned to return to Earth with rock samples, but it is already sending asteroid data to Earth.
Scientists have discovered that Pennu is an asteroid formed from pieces of rock joined together by gravity. The width of the asteroid is about 500 meters.
The “pen” and its motion are affected by the Jarkovsky effect – as the asteroid orbits the sun, it heats up and cools again as it rotates. As the asteroid rotates through this temperature change, energy is generated and the asteroid gains a slight acceleration.
The gravitational pull of the sun and other forces, including other planets and their satellites, can change the motion of asteroids. The flow of ionized particles from the sun, known as dust and solar air in the solar system, also affects the orbit of the pen.