Chapters of Intense rain destroying Belgium, The Duchy of Weight on the Grand Duchy of Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg and the West Coast of North America and now leading to an unprecedented fire season, echoing warning weather forecasters. These two phenomena are completely opposed and almost unprecedented. It is scientifically incorrect to provide a causal link without nuances, so it is necessary to sort out what combines and differs for these two extreme atmospheric phenomena.
Common point: A phenomenon of “blocking”
On the one hand, the rain that falls from the sky until the rivers, lakes and streams of Europe emerge from their beds. On the other hand, dry air and extreme temperatures. In both cases, we are dealing with an event that lasts over time, an event of “blocking”, “That is, an atmospheric system that does not move, which will last longer than a normal atmospheric structure.”, Explains Fabian Deble, senior meteorologist at the Royal Meteorological Agency (IRM). So the conditions for living on earth are extreme, and it is multiplied by the longevity of these conditions.
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So this is a common thing, but it is not possible to make a connection between two bad weather. “One could have happened without the other. These are isolated and independent events.”, From a meteorological point of view, the meteorological study says that nothing indicates that these events occur simultaneously for any reason other than chance. So there is a hypothesis about climate.
Global warming as a common class?
Jean-Marc van Yerbessel, a professor of climate research at U.C. Louvain, was invited to a televised news conference this Thursday at 1 p.m., to study the flood in our country, no doubt: “We cannot explain what happened in Belgium without climate change“. Shaking, first statement He was quoted by the International Commission on Climate Change (IPCC) since 1990 “Saying that the greenhouse effect will increase the two peaks of the hydraulic cycle, i.e. there will be more episodes of heavy rain and more drought”.
Effect of atmospheric warming on the rain cycle, confirmed by Fabian DePaul, “The first point is that warming allows the atmosphere to catch more water, so when the air is depressed there is more rainfall. The second point is that warming naturally dries the water. ‘For the episodes of air and therefore the resulting drought.”, Is currently in North America.
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According to the meteorologist, heavy rains in Belgium and its neighbors are not necessarily the cause of global warming. “We could have known of similar phenomena in the absence of global warming.e “, he explains. The disruption our planet is experiencing and these chapters are not necessarily linked, either. “Note the frequency and intensity of these episodes” To make it clear that they are the result of global warming, “This is still under study and we have no perspective yet“, He concludes.
We know global warming “Usually leads to an increase in the probability of serious events“But we do not know if 2021 will be an outcome, and there is a growing trend in the frequency of these events.