Ministers will decide on Wednesday whether TSID can move to Tier 2 in its Covid 19 alarm level system.
Although formal announcements are not expected to be made by the government until Thursday morning, Prime Minister Boris Johnson will meet with experts and leaders from across the UK on Wednesday morning.
The Tory MPs in Deside need to move the health secretary for our region from tier 3 – the highest level of local locking – which will allow businesses like pubs and restaurants to reopen.
However, Labor MPs believe the infection rates from the rapidly declining disease at the end of the last national lockout are still high.
Health experts are already concerned about the impact of Christmas ‘bubbles’ – which will loosen restrictions on the interiors of three homes – in the new year.
The North Tees University Hospital in Stockton is already treating twice as many Govt patients as it did during the first waves of infections, while continuing to provide non-Govt operations and care.
The Department of Health and Social Security always takes into account a number of factors when determining local locking controls – not just infection rates.
But many will believe the restrictions will be relaxed as local infections are confirmed in some parts of the region.
Boris Johnson will also discuss plans for Christmas – five days after fears that the relaxed restrictions could lead to new cases and deaths in the new years.
The prime minister is facing calls from Labor leader Khair Stormer to convene an emergency meeting of the COBRA committee to discuss any changes.
A spokesman for the Prime Minister confirmed on Tuesday that the plans were “always under consideration” after two leading health journals expressed their concerns about the current plan.
In order to give a more accurate picture of the local spread, infection rates per 100,000 population are revealed in seven days.
Of course, cities can have more than 100,000 people – so the figures are standardized by dividing the number of seven days by the population of each and multiplying by 100,000.
Since it can take a few days to calculate the positive test results and add them to the total, the infection rate is always based on data from two or three days earlier.
In the seven days until December 13, the rates are:
- Hartbull – 221
- Middlesbrough – 204.3
- Stockton – 169.8
- Redcar and Cleveland – 139.3
At Redcar and Cleveland, the rate is stable – down from 140 cases per 100,000 on December 8th.
At Hartlbull, the rate was slightly lower, but rose again to 221 – exactly on December 8th.
Middlesbrough’s rate rose to 193.6 that day, and Stockton’s value to 142.9.
How things were when the locking was done
In November, with the start of the second national lockdown, infection rates in TSID peaked at their highest recorded levels – although they may have been higher in March, before the Covid test became widely available – ranging from 400 to 500 cases per 100,000 in each metropolis.
But as the weeks went by, those rates plummeted.
- Hartbull – 242
- Middlesbrough – 173
- Stockton – 176.1
- Redcar and Cleveland – 129.20
Layer 3 rules – prohibit encounters indoors or in private gardens, and ensure bars and restaurants – are not responsible for a dramatic drop in infection rates within fifteen days or they are in effect, rates are essentially stable.
What happens next
It is understood that the decision to shift any part to the new tier is being taken this morning, although it will not be officially confirmed on Wednesday, but could be found sooner than the government’s official announcement on Thursday, December 17th.
Any changes are expected to begin on Saturday, December 19th.
A survey was initially made in London that the capital had moved into layer 3.