Environment – 195 countries look at climate forecasts

As illusions and catastrophic fire make headlines around the world, 195 countries have joined the UN. New forecasts from climate experts begin Monday, a key statement calling for quick and strong action against climate change. Climate change.

Seven years after the final assessment, this new IPCC report falls in the midst of disasters that have once again brought to the fore the effects of climate change, from exceptional rainfall in China and Germany to extreme temperatures in Canada.

But despite the shock of the images, some fear that this renewed interest will accelerate as important steps for the future of mankind are solicited from the planet’s leaders who will meet for the COP26 climate conference in November. In Glasgow (Scotland).

“Summary for Policymakers”

“Everyone is talking about a climate emergency now, right. But once this tragedy is over, we’re going to forget it again and continue as before,” said activist Greta Dunberg on Twitter, who took to the streets in recent years and called on governments to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

The IPCC report, to be released on August 9, will discuss its “summary for decision-makers” line by line behind virtually closed doors for two weeks, updating its estimate and its climate forecast: global temperature, rising sea levels, the intensity of extreme events.

The other two sections are due out in early 2022. AFP has received an early version, showing how life on Earth will inevitably change within thirty years or so. But that will not happen after COP26.

“Numbers and figures are precious, but what the world needs now is, above all, climate action. People around the world are demanding it,” pleaded UN Climate Chancellor Patricia Espinosa last week. ” They want courageous and courageous leadership to take us, ”he added.

With the signing of this agreement in 2015, almost all countries on the planet are committed to reducing CO2 emissions to control global warming to “less than 2 below C” compared to pre-industrial times.

Should it be below + 1.5 C?

The planet is already warming up to about 1.1 ° C, and each part of a degree brings the share of more extreme events, with + 1.5 C becoming the primary target of this threshold. Many activists and political leaders.

But can we do that? This is one of the questions that needs to be answered by an evaluation of the most recent thousands of scientific studies by the IPCC. While some doubt whether the challenge can be met, others – sometimes for fear of being encouraged – insist that it is not impossible.

“Controlling global warming to + 1.5 ° C is still physically, technically and economically feasible. But it will not be long if we continue to act too low and too late, ”said Kaisa Kozonan of Greenpeace.

To believe that this limit should not be exceeded, the UN has recommended that emissions be reduced by an average of 7.6% each year from 2020 to 2030. If 2020 sees a fall in this level due to the Covid 19 epidemic, a relapse is expected. The International Energy Agency predicts record emissions by 2023, giving a small share of excitation packages dedicated to clean energy.

“But if we do not succeed, if we can reach 1.6 ° C it is better than 1.7 than C and 1.7 ° C is better than 1.8 than C.” “Imprisonment for 2020 has reduced emissions by 6 to 7%. If we want to achieve a drop of 40 or 50% emissions by 2030, we see work to be done. This is almost a coveted year, which is not the way we want it to be,” he told AFP. “This effort is huge, but worth the game candle”.

AFP

Posted today 04:21

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