Emmanuel Macron forgives America, ignores Australia and punishes England

In 2003, Paris, Berlin and Moscow opposed the US invasion of Iraq.

Condoleezza Rice, President Bush’s national security adviser, is proud to define the course of action against the three denials in these terms: “Punish France, ignore Germany, and pardon Russia.”

. Eighteen years later, President Macron adopted the same method in the Axis Alliance (“Australia, United Kingdom, United States”): “Punish the United Kingdom, ignore Australia, and forgive the United States.” United “. The diplomatic line-up with the G20 in Rome and the COP26 in Glasgow last weekend provided an explanation for this.

Forgive America first. You do not have to be in the secret of the gods to predict that anger with Washington will not last until Christmas. Neither the business community nor the Department of Defense and Defense wants to escalate or drag out the fighting. A week later

Australia’s condemnation of the French submarine deal

, Joe Biden and Emmanuel Macron issued a “joint declaration” to appease. As planned, the two presidents met on Friday, October 29, in Rome, on the sidelines of the G20. The French insisted that it should take place in French territory – in this case

Villa Bonaparte, French Embassy in Holy See.

Although Joe Biden made his host wait about 90 minutes, things went well. After some kind words (such as “our oldest ally”), Joe Biden acknowledged that the announcement of the Accus agreement and the cancellation of the submarine contract were “disgusting” (Clumsy) And “lack of elegance” (Not done very kindly), Adding: “I had the impression that France had been informed a long time ago”. If Joe Biden says …

Friday evening,

The two presidents issued a lengthy joint statement, which satisfies French diplomacy

. However, no official visit of Emmanuel Macron to the United States or Joe Biden to France is currently planned. The post of Kamala Harris vice-president will only be in Paris on November 11th and 12th.

Absent. The words “treason” or “punch” uttered by the ministers of Emmanuel Macron in September are forgotten. France is now satisfied with recognizing the “mistakes”, but it is expecting “evidence” of hope, according to the head of state. These are mainly related to strategic questions: “The importance of a complementary European security with NATO”, “France’s role as a partner in the Indo-Pacific region”, “the best performance of US exports to military exports” or “resources provided by the US to additional Sahel.” French diplomacy seeks to take advantage of the crisis. Wise, but we have to wait a while to measure the definite consequences beyond announcements.

Emmanuel Macron’s favorite European “autonomy” and “sovereignty” are mentioned only in relation to the “regulation of new technologies”, both earlier and in Iraq. “Russia” and “China” do not appear in the general discourse, but speak of “the need to confront new and emerging threats.”

The French strategy is clear: Forgive the United States and talk to them face to face, if not on an equal footing.

Two more are missing from the press release: the United Kingdom and Australia, still at the center of the latest crisis. The French strategy is clear: if not on an equal footing, forgive the United States for speaking face to face. As for the other two, we either ignore them (Canberra) or punish them (London).

Franco-British relationship. On Thursday, October 28, President Macron simply spoke by phone with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

An icy newsletter from Elysee

. The two briefly crossed paths on the G20, and then the French president nailed the Australian to the head, saying: “Do you think Scott Morrison lied to you? I don’t think so, I know. ” Move, nothing to see.

If Paris can ignore Australia – but for how long? – This is not true in the United Kingdom either. As tensions rise in the aftermath of Brexit, it is unlikely that London will outperform profits and losses.

If Emmanuel Macron and Boris Johnson meet face to face on Sunday morning, the weather will be electric. The two leaders did not remember the same things from their meeting … The fight over fishing rights in the British Ocean was crystallized.

And France threatens the UK with “retaliatory measures” earlier this week.

Other issues poison the Franco-British relationship: with the exception of the submarine issue, the migration issue on the North Sea and the Northern Irish border complicates the situation.

Questioned by recent comments, British historian Robert Tombs estimates, “Many Englishmen think that France wants to punish them for Brexit.”

The idea that Elysee is not trying to eliminate whatever the truth of the disagreement is.