Is Australia a future winner in the trade war with China?

From 2018, Australia prevents Hawaii to build 5G network in Australia. Since then, tensions have risen sharply, especially when asked by Australia through its foreign minister in April An international open inquiry On the origin of the Govit-19 infection. Overall a real trade war led by Beijing continued Retaliatory measures against certain Australian products. The two main sectors interested in mining and agriculture.

As a guide, Australian barley exports to China are almost reflective Half Of the country’s total exports, coal exports At 30% Annual revenue is about $ 40 billion. In addition, there is the Central Empire First country Important for Australian wines.

Thus, this pro-Australian trade bias against China seemed to have placed Beijing in a strong position in this economic conflict from the outset, especially since the protectionist measures were serious. Rates on barley were increased 80.5% Experienced wine imports up to an additional charge 107.1% to 212.1%. On their side, Coal-carrying boats Access to all ports in the country was practically prohibited.

However, this embargo proves to be more and more negative. Barley or Coal, Australia Quickly adapt And found alternative outlets, especially in India, Vietnam and Thailand. In addition, with regard to copper, China lost a concessional supplier over a period of time Global scarcity At the same time it avoided Australia’s high import output, i.e., an attack on iron (outside of the needs of its economy). Last December, China’s overall exports returned to their highest level since last summer.

At the beginning of 2021, this trend seems to be in favor of Canberra and demonstrates the possibility of standing with the Chinese power; Just as Beijing made the same mistake that the United States made by using aggressive protectionist policies Useless. This could set a precedent and set a paradigm shift in the future in the future practices of trade wars between China and the Western camp.

Ivan Trologos

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