Will the heat last?

What fate is expected at the end of this month and the beginning of July, especially after a very dry start in the region until June, which is especially hot? Are restorative rain episodes expected after this prolonged drought? Has the temperature started to drop after the most surplus months? Weekly, we try to answer these questions based on the scenarios generated by CEP and CFS.

Week from Monday, June 13 to Monday, June 20, 2022:

Next week, all models will agree to an exceptional heating season with the most favorable temperature anomalies. In fact, a large ridge of high pressure is expected across Western Europe, expelling craters in Scandinavia and Russia. A cold drop hangs over the Iberian Peninsula, which acts as a heat pump that brings in much hotter air from the Sahara. It is therefore a sunny, dry and hot season with values ​​reaching 40 C throughout the region.

Map: Geopotential – GFS Pressure (Meteociel)

Week from Monday, June 20 to Monday, June 27, 2022:

The regime change should take place according to the CEP and CFS models with the tank coming from Greenland, which is trying to move towards the British Isles via a jet stream. In this type of structure, the barometer will lose some hectopascals on the days it establishes seawater. While a few nodes are possible in colder climates in the north of France, the south of France will also experience a drop in temperature. If the maritime influence is not superficial, a rain-storm decomposition under a slightly lower pressure prevents optimization.

In short, the flow of this tallow in the direction of Western Europe marks the end of a period of intense heat throughout France. Temperatures are expected to be lower in the north of France, which is close to the seasonal norms in our region. On the rainfall side, slightly higher than expected in the north of France, they are close to normal in the south in terms of temperature.

Map: CEP / ECMWF rainfall anomaly

Week from Monday 27th June to 4th July 2022:

The next week, announcing the official start of the summer holidays, the trough in Western Europe is moving towards Central Europe. In the Azores, the anticyclone begins to swell, and with the advent of the sun, clouds rarely appear. If the previous week’s rainfall was not sufficient (high probability …) this dry weather may be a factor in the current drought. Due to the westerly / northwesterly flow, the temperature is struggling to increase compared to the previous week.

In the end, a weekly change is expected with the increase in atmospheric pressure caused by the swelling (or because of it) of the Azores anticyclone. Sunny, dry weather (lack of rainfall) and rather cold (generally low temperatures) are expected throughout France. Another factor exacerbating the drought was the establishment of a strong Mistral and Tramondan capability in the south of France, which could cause some wildfires.

Map: CFS Tropical Tidbits

Long-term trend:

Azores resistance will rise towards Western Europe. A wide ridge will form with a long hot and dry period, which is very worrying but not 100% sure. A few thundershowers, at most, may erupt in relief areas. Follow our page and our site for possible changes that can be made during this period.