Polls struggled to gauge the amount of “effective votes”.

If we believe the polls released in the last days before the election, the first round results of the 2022 presidential election did not come as a big surprise. However, they do not fully comply with their measurements.

Polling agencies have accurately predicted the arrival of candidates. Of the eight polls surveyed and published in the last days of the campaign, everyone expected the turnout of the top six candidates, including Emmanuel Macron, Marine Le Pen, Jean-Luc Mலlenchon, Eric Zemmour, Valerie Beckress and Yannick Jodot.

On the other hand, these studies failed to predict the amount of “effective votes” in this first round, in which 73% of the votes were concentrated on the three leading candidates, while the other nine contestants were only a quarter. Shared votes.

The underestimated breakthrough of melanzone

Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s impressive improvement, which began in early March, is the least accurately measured endpoint by opinion polls. If the head of the La France Inquisite’s continued progress in the last six weeks of the campaign had been followed, his decision on Sunday evening would have exceeded the intentions he had budgeted for on Friday, two days before the election. Five polls, released on April 8, aimed to get him 16.5% to 17.5% of the vote, down four to five points. While there is no specific reason to believe that Mலlenchon’s votes were low, many voters may have changed their minds on polling day and polling day to stop the Left in the second round of the election.

This last-minute report of the vote on Jean-Luc Mélenchon illustrates the poor results of Yannick Jadot and Fabian Russell, who received slightly fewer votes than polls had predicted. Six of the eight polls surveyed rated the environmentalist candidate’s score slightly higher, while all were wrong for the Communist candidate. But these differences are small and explain only a fraction of the vote exchanges that were in favor of the Popular Union candidate.

The effective vote was spent by Beckress and Zemora

Among the other unknowns that lasted before the first round were the results that Valérie Pécresse and Eric Zemmour, who have been steadily declining in voting intentions since mid-February, could get. As the second round went to them, a section of their electorate was expected to be in favor of Emmanuel Macron’s candidates, respectively.^Me Pécresse) and Marine Le Pen.

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