In the midst of disasters, long-awaited weather forecasts

In the midst of disasters, long-awaited weather forecasts

While images of floods and fire are making headlines around the world, the UN Climate experts on Monday released their most anticipated new climate forecast, three months ahead of the COP26 climate conference, which is critical to the world’s future.

After two weeks of closed-door and virtual meetings, 195 countries on Friday approved the IPCC’s first comprehensive assessment in seven years, with its “summary for decision-makers” negotiated line by line and word.

Amid planetary disasters, floods in Germany and China, monster fires in Europe and North America, and frenzied temperatures in Canada, scientists released these new estimates on Monday at 08:00 GMT and the severity of sea level rise or extreme events.

“This is a serious warning that human behavior could accelerate global warming,” COP26 leader Alok Sharma told The Guardian on Sunday in an interview with The Observer.

The report said the British minister was “a warning call to all who still do not understand why the next decade should be absolutely decisive in terms of climate action,” when it was too late to act.

– “Change direction” –

UN Climate Manager Patricia Espinoza also stressed the need to act quickly at the start of the IPCC session at the end of July.


“The reality is that we are not on track to achieve the Paris Agreement goal of controlling global warming to + 1.5 ° C by the end of the century. In fact, we are on the opposite path, we are moving above + 3 ° C. .

“I say this to decision makers: science does not allow us to see the world the way we want it to. It shows the world as it is. It is not politics, it is the truth,” he added.

AFP / Christophe Stach

By signing the Paris Agreement in 2015, all countries on the planet have pledged to reduce CO2 emissions.

The planet is already warming up to about 1.1 degrees Celsius, with each degree bringing the share of more extreme events, with this + 1.5 degrees Celsius becoming the preferred target. Many activists and political leaders.

But can we manage without violating it? This is one of the central questions addressed by the IPCC report, which is based on thousands of recent scientific studies.

“If we do not reduce our emissions in the coming decade, we will not succeed. + 1.5 C will most likely be reached between 2030 and 2040, these are the best estimates we have today,” climate expert Robert Wattard told AFP before the session began in July before the session began.

According to the UN, to reduce global warming to + 1.5 ° C, emissions must be reduced by an average of 7.6% each year. Although 2020 will see this level of decline due to the epidemic, a recovery is expected.

The other two parts of the IPCC assessment are due to be released in 2022. One of the implications of an early version of the AFP is that it shows how life on Earth will inevitably change within thirty years or so. Solutions to reduce third emissions.

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