Instead of trying to understand the background of the visit and the reality of man and the extent of his country’s influence and power, we engage in interpretation and analysis, which aims to end in a form of Lebanon where the strongest change signifies a “peaceful majority” and is ready to take over the country with or without elections …
This is a kind of joke. However, without talking about our problem, which seems to ignore the current Lebanese position, we need to reiterate what the country needs to say about the need for an outsider who can help address the country’s political, security and economic crises. This brings us back to the square one, where there is intense humor, and what is happening in the region is making its first impact on the current type of crisis. As a result, one has to ask about the nature of the most influential regional and international forces in Lebanon.
Over the past decade, some countries have not balanced an inch on the measuring instruments for the Lebanon crisis. It has not changed its strategy, its objectives, its alliances, or its programs, the most important of which are Syria, Iran, Israel and Turkey. But other countries began to adjust their strategies. They are led by the United States and with the help of Britain, the most important of which are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. Note that we are still in the process of measuring the new share of countries that have joined our arena and their increasingly effective share, such as Russia’s first and China’s second.
As a result of the logical setbacks its countries have suffered in light of what has happened over the past decade, the US-led print has entered the stage of reconsidering many things. This does not mean that the world will change, but it is certain that there will be big changes in the rules of the game, and countries like Lebanon will be greatly affected by these changes. The question here is: how will the Lebanese handle these changes, will they become more realistic, will they abandon hypocrisy, acrobatics, accusations and audacity, and will any of them take responsibility for their actions? Over the years, we have taken the initiative to withdraw or relocate, or we – most likely – we will be ahead of a new chapter of arrogance and denial that will leave its impact on the country’s general climate and reduce the chances that Lebanon will benefit from the changes around us.
According to a senior diplomat involved in international mediation, the problem for some Lebanese is that they do not understand the nature of the change over the past decade regarding the role of the middle and major countries. He explains how the plans of recent US administrations, especially with Donald Trump, have been pushed towards strengthening the role of countries with a large regional presence, not mortgaging the accounts of key countries. On the other hand, he explains that influence can be exercised by countries that do not have such a large economic status, and he gives the example of the historic Syrian role in Lebanon, which has always been more effective and more powerful than the United States and Europe. This has been repeated in recent years with countries such as Turkey and Iran, and Saudi Arabia has changed its policy and abandoned the status of “relative neutrality” to access a “start-up position” because it felt it could play a game with more participatory, less powerful nations training in the arenas of the region. Tried to do. Larger countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar, as well as Egypt, are far from on display.
If an approach is made to the current situation in Lebanon, two elements can be summarized, one related to the nature of the current economic crisis, because both the ruling party and the opposition in both sections of power want to resume consumption life, and most of what they want is finance and new loans. Another element related to political issues and security and military tensions, especially in the aftermath of the Syrian crisis and what is happening in Iraq, is that the forces that can use influence are the ones that deserve it because of their presence and role. All of this has forced Lebanese to look around them, examining the quality of existing changes and making calculations according to phonetic formulas, although some of those results do not apply.
It is not necessary to ignore the internal elements of the crisis, but it is necessary to try to figure out what is going on around us: where have the Iranian-US talks changed? What are the results of the Iran-Saudi contact tours? What happened between Syria and Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the Emirates and Egypt? What does Turkey plan for Syria? What about developments within Lebanon, Syria and the Islamic currents that have played a major role in the region over the past decade?
Tomorrow: Saudi Arabia, Iran and Syria